“I don’t see any reason why the pattern developed in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin – of Obama being able to cut into the base of Hillary Clinton’s vote – will stop when you get to Ohio,” says Professor John Kessel, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. In his view, Barack Obama will “do very well” in the state on 4 March.
I quoted that line above from the BBC online news just now – we should see if Prof Kessel is right in two weeks time. I listened to a lecture by Thomas Mann yesterday at the School about the US election. One thing I remember in mind from his lecture is that since the Potomac primaries two weeks ago, Obama has started to build an expanding different social bases for his voters. Those who have been traditionally supporting Clinton e.g. the Latinos, white women and men, and lower income and low educated voters are now turning to vote for Obama. These voters have tended to “go where the wind blows” and that means the role of public opinion plays a crucial role. In every election, in any democratic country, it is key to take into account social bases which comprises the voter behaviors.
Though polls like Rasmussen, USASurvey, and others are now indicating that Clinton is leading over Obama, the US media coverage seems to set its agenda by favoring to have all possibilities open – something which the media in Indonesia must learn very hard. This benefits Obama now that these two weeks left heading for Ohio and Texas primaries could be changing the polls.
Given all the hypes on Obama nowadays, and if he really then became the President, we perhaps must also bear in mind if the Democrat’s US foreign policy would really change from its traditional values. I am afraid that, like Clinton when faced with Rwanda genocide, only things mattered most to the US interest would the President take action.